VfL Wolfsburg vs. SC Freiburg preview: Fifth-place Freiburg look to keep European spot

VFL WOLFSBURG

After a series of recent poor results, VfL Wolfsburg (10-9-11, 12th) is facing a team currently in a European competition place for the third consecutive week. Die Wölfe managed four goals in their last two matches against RB Leipzig and 1. FSV Mainz 05, but failed to pick up more than a point from those matches (a 2-3 defeat and a 2-2 draw). 

With those results, and the fact that Wolfsburg has not won since 1. March in Bremen, Wolfsburg now has just a 1,44 % chance of finishing in a European competition spot (according to Jan Šereš' ELO simulation model) and a 10,44 % chance of finishing in the top half of the Bundesliga table when the season comes to a close in three weeks. 

Not helping the club is the fact that Wolfsburg have struggled at the Volkswagen Arena, and have actually performed better on away ground; their last win at home was almost four months ago, a 5-1 thumping of Borussia Mönchengladbach on 14. January; Wolfsburg is 3-6-6 in this current term. 

There has been recent speculation that Ralph Hasenhüttl will not be continuing as coach of the club next season, despite his current contract expiring at the end of the 2025 / 26 season; Sebastian Schindelorz, sporting director of the club, said, as reported by Sport Bild, that the club will “finish the season with him [Hasenhüttl] and then evaluate what is best for the club”. 

According to Bild in a report posted Thursday, Jacob Neestrup, who coaches FC København in Denmark, is reported to be the main candidate to replace the 57-year-old Austrian; Brian Priske, also from Denmark and former Feyenoord coach, is also possible to join. Kicker is suggesting that Lars Friis, also Danish, and Priske's replacement at Sparta Praha, could also take the job. Marco Rose, who was just fired by RB Leipzig following a somewhat disappointing second-half campaign in their season, is also possible to replace Hasenhüttl. 

Hasenhüttl himself was asked by Sky journalists about this situation, and responded, “If, at the end of the season, there are seven or eight teams who should not have been in front of us, then it was not enough - then, the next coach is allowed to try his luck”. Regarding the end of the season and how it could pan out for Wolfsburg, he said, “Of course, we still want to take a lot of points. Perhaps we still make it into a single-digit table position; I believe this is very possible.” 

Team News 

The list of injuries on Wolfsburg's side is still long: goalkeeper Marius Müller (concussion), left-back Rogério (fitness), centre-back Sebastiaan Bornauw (foot), centre-back Mathys Angély (torn muscle fibre), central midfielder Mattias Svanberg (muscle issues), attacking midfielder Bennit Bröger (knee - called up to main squad from U19), and forward Andreas Skov Olsen (hip flexor issues) will be absent. Aster Vranckx has also been granted special leave and will be unable to play this week. 

The situation around David Odogu is that he appears to be doing okay in his recovery; Hasenhüttl specified on the 18-year-old centre-back that he “had problems with his calf again, lacked the robustness; we said before the season that it would be an issue with him, because it is difficult to plan with a player like that, when a young player is not that robust and is always out injured after one or two matches.” 

SC FREIBURG

On the other side of the field is SC Freiburg (14-6-10), who are heading into this match after two decent wins against Mönchengladbach (2-1) and Hoffenheim (3-2). Currently, they are in fifth place in their Bundesliga campaign, three points into European competition with four matches remaining; this means that they must be fully invested to confirm their spot, with Dortmund and Werder right behind them at 45 points.

There is a 43,89 % chance that Freiburg makes European competition, according to the Elo simulation model mentioned above, and a 12,23 % chance of making the Champions League in particular. Freiburg also has the edge in this match, having won the head-to-head match at the Europa-Park Stadion by a 3-2 result on 13. December.

However, whereas Wolfsburg are struggling at home in their 2024 / 25 campaign, Freiburg are struggling away; currently, they are 5-4-6 in 15 matches when being the visitors. They also hold a -12 goal difference on away territory, fourth-worst in the league, only above Union Berlin, Kiel, and Bochum.

Unlike Wolfsburg, who are plagued with injuries at the moment, Freiburg have just three injuries on their squad; despite the fact that one of them is starting goalkeeper Noah Atubolu, it gives Julian Schuster a wide variety of options in the outfield, and this was highlighted in his press conference at the Volkswagen Arena prior to this matchup.

When asked about some of the younger players, such as Jordy Makengo and Johan Manzambi, starting over much more experienced players like 32-year-old Christian Günter, Schuster said, “For me, we are not in a season of transition. Jordy would have deserved to start earlier, and Johan has made so much progress, so he deserves to be in the starting eleven now.” Regarding the many options in player selection, Schuster replied, “I am grateful to make such tough decisions - I am trying to moderate them as best as I can”.

Team News 

Goalkeeper Noah Atubolu (shoulder) is out for this match, meaning that Florian Müller will likely start in goal once again. Centre-back Bruno Ogbus (achilles tendon rupture) and attacking midfielder Daniel-Kofi Kyereh (knee) are also missing from the lineup in this match.

Schuster said in the press conference regarding Atubolu that the 22-year-old goalkeeper is continuing rehabilitation, and that Bremen-born Turkish international Eren Dinkçi will be able to return to the team following a series of muscle issues that kept him out of the most recent two matches.